Today's update / 13 new entries across 🇨🇳🇸🇦🇮🇷🇯🇵🇵🇰🇵🇭🇷🇺🇸🇩🇹🇼🇬🇧🇺🇦🇺🇸 · 5 summaries refreshed · Oil, Iran casualties +1 more updated
Iran Dead
1,937
Iranian deaths in US-Israeli strikes since Feb 28
Brent Crude
~$105
Brent crude amid Strait of Hormuz closure
Hormuz
88 days
closed
Russia Cas.
~1.3M
Russian military casualties according to Western estimates
EU Defence
€381B
from €218B
Sudan
14M+
displaced
Global Growth
2.9%
OECD global forecast
Upcoming Signals

Important scheduled or strongly signalled developments to watch next. Showing the closest signals first keeps the country briefings closer.

2 of 5 items
🇨🇳 Xi Jinping and Donald Trump
trade arrangementMedium confidenceSignal passed
Expected in April
Updated 1d ago
Fact
Anticipated summit to produce tentative trade arrangement
Analysis
US semiconductor strength vs China's critical minerals leverage
Forecast
Limited deal possible amid strategic competition
🇺🇸 Donald Trump
war strategyHigh confidenceSignal passed
Tonight at 9 PM ET
Updated today
Fact
Trump scheduled to address nation on Iran war update
Analysis
Speech expected to outline end-game strategy and timeline
Forecast
May announce escalation or negotiation breakthrough
3 more signals hidden for a shorter country scan.
Featured Contradiction
Claim A
Trump claims Iran war could end in 2-3 weeks without deal
Claim B
Iran FM Araghchi says Tehran has 'zero trust' in US negotiations
Why
Contradictory signals undermine diplomatic resolution prospects
Current View
Country Briefings

Search the tracked actors, then open a country to review its summary, posture, and most recent developments.

22 of 22 countries shown
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Open any country card to see its summary, latest developments, and source support.
🇺🇸
United States
Western/NATO
Updated today

America leads 33-day war against Iran alongside Israel, with Trump threatening NATO exit over allies' lack of support while claiming victory is 2-3 weeks away.

Analysis
Iran War
Trump threatens to pull US out of NATO after allies fail to support Iran war, says conflict will end in 2-3 weeks. US lost 16 MQ-9 Reaper drones over Iran since February. [CNN]
🇮🇳
India
Non-Aligned
Updated 15 Feb
2-5 day coverage

BRICS chair while leaning toward the US-Israel position. Continued buying Russian oil after the Trump deal. Co-sponsored the anti-Iran UNSC resolution. Modi visited the Knesset two days before the war.

Analysis
Trade/Econ
India hosted the AI Impact Summit in February, the first such gathering outside the West, positioning itself as a development hub and governance voice for the Global South. [EY]
🇨🇳
China
China Sphere
Updated 2d ago

China escalates pressure on Japan over Taiwan stance through sanctions and espionage operations while denying US intelligence assessments of policy shifts.

Analysis
Indo-Pacific
China sanctions Japanese lawmaker Keiji Furuya, aide to PM Takaichi, over Taiwan visits. China denies ODNI assessment of Japanese policy shift on Taiwan. [The Asia Cable]
🇷🇺
Russia
Russia Bloc
Updated 1d ago

Russia intensifies spring offensive in Ukraine, gaining territory while rejecting peace proposals and launching mass drone attacks on civilian infrastructure.

Analysis
Russia-Ukraine
Russia launched mass daytime drone attack using over 80 drones across western and central Ukraine, killing 4 and leaving thousands without power. Putin rejects Zelensky's Orthodox Easter ceasefire proposal. [Kyiv Independent]
🇹🇷
Türkiye
Non-Aligned
Updated 2d ago

NATO member acting as an Iran mediator. Refused airspace for US strikes. Missiles were intercepted over Turkish airspace.

Analysis
Iran War
NATO air defense intercepted Iranian ballistic missile over eastern Mediterranean that entered Turkish airspace for fourth time [Critical Threats]
🇵🇰
Pakistan
Non-Aligned
Updated today

Main US-Iran intermediary. Conveyed a 15-point US proposal. Anti-war protests left 22 dead.

Analysis
Trade/Econ
Pakistan resumes Taliban ceasefire talks in China with Afghan government. Iran agrees to allow 20 Pakistani-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz, two ships daily. [Just Security]
🇯🇵
Japan
US-Aligned
Updated 1d ago

China ties at a multi-decade low. LDP supermajority. Record defence budget of ¥9T.

Analysis
Indo-Pacific
Japan deploys long-range Type-12 missiles to Kyushu and Shizuoka bases, gaining first-strike capability against enemy territory. Defense spending preparations amid China tensions. [Pravda Taiwan]
🇮🇱
Israel
US-Aligned
Updated today

Co-launched the Iran campaign. Ground operations in Lebanon. Under continued Houthi fire. Striking nuclear facilities.

Analysis
Iran War
At least 16 people wounded after Iranian missile fragments hit Tel Aviv and Bnei Brak, including a 10-year-old girl in critical condition [CNN]
🇧🇷
Brazil
Non-Aligned
Updated 1d ago

Condemned both the Maduro seizure and the Iran war. COP30 host. Lula says outside powers 'want to colonise us.'

Analysis
Trade/Econ
Venezuela's Maduro appeared in US court, with his defense challenging the legality of his January capture as he remains jailed in Brooklyn. [Al Jazeera]
🇿🇦
South Africa
Non-Aligned
Updated 13 Mar
Event-driven coverage

Leading the ICJ genocide case. The only BRICS member excluded from Trump's 'Board of Peace.'

Analysis
Iran War
18 countries intervening in SA-led ICJ case vs Israel.
🇮🇷
Iran
Conflict Zone
Updated 1d ago

Iran denies ceasefire requests while expanding conflict through Houthi proxies, claiming full control of Strait of Hormuz as civilian casualties exceed 1,900.

Analysis
Iran War
Houthis enter Iran war, launching ballistic missiles at Israel and triggering air raid sirens in Beersheba. 2,500 US Marines deploy to Middle East for Strait of Hormuz operations. [Wikipedia]
🇺🇦
Ukraine
Conflict Zone
Updated 1d ago

Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian energy infrastructure while Russia demands Donbas withdrawal within 2 months, threatening forcible seizure of the region.

Analysis
Russia-Ukraine
Ukrainian drones struck Russian Port of Ust-Luga for fifth time in ten days. Russia gained 17 square miles in past week as spring offensive gains momentum, completing 'liberation' of Luhansk oblast. [Russia Matters]
🇸🇩
Sudan
Conflict Zone
Updated 1d ago

Sudan's civil war intensifies with RSF multi-front offensive near Ethiopia border as international sanctions target key conflict actors.

Analysis
Africa
RSF launches simultaneous attacks in Blue Nile province near Ethiopia border and direct assault on Dilling. EU sanctions seven individuals including Hemedti's brother for escalating conflict. [Wikipedia]
🇬🇧
United Kingdom
Western/NATO
Updated today

Pledged forces for Ukraine planning. RAF conducting defensive Iran operations. Starmer says Britain faces a 'war on two fronts.'

Analysis
Iran War
UK leads 35-country coalition committing to restore Strait of Hormuz maritime security. Foreign Secretary Cooper to lead conference on reopening key oil transport route. [CBS News]
🇫🇷
France
Western/NATO
Updated 1d ago

Nuclear expansion, the first since 1992. 'Dissuasion avancée.' €36B in additional military spending.

Analysis
Iran War
France maintains its position not authorizing use of French bases for Iran attacks despite Trump calling France 'VERY UNHELPFUL' on Truth Social. [Al Jazeera]
🇩🇪
Germany
Western/NATO
Updated 2 Mar
Event-driven coverage

Defence spending at €108B, the highest on record. Debt brake reformed. Nuclear-sharing talks with France.

Analysis
Nuclear
Joint statement with France on nuclear integration.
🇸🇦
Gulf States
US-Aligned
Updated today

Under Iranian attack while hosting US bases. Saudi-UAE tensions persist. Ras Tanura remains shut down.

Analysis
Iran War
Kuwait airport hit by drone attack causing large fire. UAE intercepts 5 ballistic missiles and 35 drones in latest Iranian attack wave. Bahrain extinguishes fire from Iranian strike. [Democracy Now]
🇦🇺
Australia
US-Aligned
Updated 5d ago

Says it was not consulted on Iran. Ongoing confrontation with China after the helicopter incident. Declined the Hormuz coalition.

Analysis
Iran War
'We weren't consulted.' Declines Hormuz coalition.
🇵🇱
Poland
Western/NATO
Updated 1d ago

Defence spending at 4.8% of GDP, NATO's highest. Nuclear ambitions signalled.

Analysis
Indo-PacificAnalysis
Poland is widening Asia-Pacific outreach through resilience diplomacy and defense partnerships, reflecting broader EU middle-power adaptation to shifting geopolitics. [The Geopolitics]
🇵🇭
Philippines
US-Aligned
Updated 4 Mar
2-5 day coverage

More than 500 US exercises. China used flares against aircraft. ASEAN chair. Energy emergency remains in place.

Analysis
Indo-Pacific
Philippines arrests three nationals with military ties for passing sensitive information to China intelligence. China escalates espionage operations supporting South China Sea coercion. [AEI]
🇹🇼
Taiwan
US-Aligned
Updated 5d ago

Pratas airspace was violated. The opposition is blocking the $40B defence budget.

Analysis
Indo-Pacific
Taiwan charges TPP campaigner Xu Chunying for violating Anti-Infiltration Act, acting on behalf of PRC handlers ahead of 2026 elections. [AEI]
🇪🇬
Egypt
Non-Aligned
Updated 26 Feb
Event-driven coverage

Backing the SAF in Sudan. GERD dispute remains active. Hosting 1.2M Sudanese refugees.

Analysis
Africa
Joint statement rejecting 'unilateral Nile measures.'